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汽车业的未来是电动汽车,而且属于中国

汽车业的未来是电动汽车,而且属于中国

Grady McGregor 2020年06月14日
无论发生什么情况,中国都将成为首屈一指的电动汽车大国,而且会长期保持第一。

全球汽车业近来遭受了颠覆性的冲击,但中国仍然是这场大动荡中的一个亮点。

在举国上下抗击新冠病毒的初期,中国汽车制造业从1月底到3月初一直处于停产状态,但现在已经全面投入运营。有迹象显示,随着购车者再次走进经销店,中国的汽车销量正在恢复到疫情爆发前的水平。

总部位于圣迭戈的咨询公司ZoZo Go致力于为汽车制造商、供应商和投资者提供亚洲战略和运营咨询服务。其首席执行官迈克尔·邓恩表示,中国能够迅速复工复产,不仅为全球制造商提供了一个在中国挽救利润的机会,还将助力中国车企加速实现其长期以来的全球扩张野心。此外,中国还将力争在2025年成为全球电动汽车制造中心。

中国现在已经是世界上最大的汽车生产国。根据国际汽车制造商组织的数据,2019年中国制造的汽车占全球总产量的28%。然而,这些产出几乎完全服务于国内市场。中国在2019年出口的汽车仅占其全年总产量的3%左右。在全球汽车销售方面,中国仍然落后于日本、德国和美国。以去年为例,中国出口了约100万辆汽车,而德国车企则在海外销售了大约350万辆。

邓恩在本周接受《财富》杂志亚洲执行主编钱科雷专访时表示,未来几年,随着全球继续笼罩在新冠疫情的阴影之下,中国在全球汽车领域的足迹很可能会扩大。他还讨论了在中美关系持续紧张之际,中国车企在海外扩张时将面临的挑战和机遇,中国本土汽车市场如何在全国复工复产期间实现反弹,以及为什么中国汽车的未来是电动汽车等问题。为篇幅和简明起见,以下访谈经过编辑处理。

《财富》:在刚刚过去的这两个月,中国的乘用车销量一直在增长。中国是否已经摆脱了新冠疫情的冲击?

迈克尔·邓恩:复苏的速度非常快。回想一下2月,整个行业和市场当时都陷入了完全停滞的状态。工厂不再生产汽车,也没有消费者去经销店买车。销量暴跌了80%——没错,在这个全球最大的市场,汽车销量暴跌了80%。但在这段停摆期之后,中国汽车市场迅速走向复苏。5月的销量再次上涨,尽管涨幅不算大。

中国消费者现在是什么心态?

谨慎、小心、慎重。中国经济仍然存在一定的不确定性,不确定因素包括中美贸易的紧张局势、失业问题等等。

中国汽车生产线现状如何?

在中国,生产不是问题。工人早已回到生产线,供应链也恢复得差不多了。中国的供应链基本上都在国内,不会像其他国家的汽车制造商那样,受困于大量零部件来自海外的窘境。

问题主要在需求端:未来几个月的需求在哪里?中国汽车行业的年产能高达4,000万辆,而国内的需求大约能消化2,000万辆。所以,只要简单算一算,你就能感觉到中国车企面临着向海外出口大量汽车的巨大压力。他们必须走出去。

但放眼海外,中国车企的真正着力点是东南亚、非洲和南美市场,因为这些市场的消费者对价格更为敏感。就美国和欧洲而言,我们可能还要再过五年,才能在美国的道路上看到中国汽车。这需要一段时间。

今年2月,中国汽车制造商吉利与沃尔沃合并。未来我们能否看到更多来自中国汽车业的这种跨国投资?

这笔交易代表了中国汽车制造商走向海外的战略方向。中国人很难把自己的制造设施“移植到”其他市场,但吉利对沃尔沃采取的方法取得了惊人的成功。

沃尔沃的销量和利润双双创下新纪录。他们正在开足马力,全力生产。这笔交易的关键点是,吉利并没有尝试打造自己的品牌——事实上,许多消费者对中国汽车品牌的第一印象可能并不好——而是收购另一个品牌。

收购将是中国车企走向海外的一个关键工具。

你认为中国的海外投资会遭到反对和限制吗?

这是毫无疑问的,尤其是在美国。2017年,我们非常震惊地发现,在美国运营的中资车企超过100家。其中大多数是通过收购进入美国市场的零部件制造商。但是,谁会想到有这么多中国公司在美国运营呢?

自2017年以来,这个数字就再也没有增加。这些中国车企正在美国站稳脚跟,但新增投资几乎为零。这主要是因为,在中国人的心目中,美国不再是一个容易入驻、对中资友好的投资目的地。

中国对电动汽车抱有怎样的愿景?

中国正在向全球汽车制造商表明态度:“如果你想在这里运营,你就必须制造电动汽车。”对全球汽车制造商来说,这一次真的没有变通办法,没有任何回旋余地,真的只有乖乖遵守这一条路。

中国还在全国范围内大力投资充电站。所以,到目前为止,中国电动车充电网络的规模比其他任何国家都要大。比如,特斯拉不仅在城市之间,而且在许多城市内部建立了一个庞大的充电网络。

无论发生什么情况,中国都将成为首屈一指的电动汽车大国,而且会长期保持第一,并最终成为全球电动汽车出口中心。(财富中文网)

译者:任文科

全球汽车业近来遭受了颠覆性的冲击,但中国仍然是这场大动荡中的一个亮点。

在举国上下抗击新冠病毒的初期,中国汽车制造业从1月底到3月初一直处于停产状态,但现在已经全面投入运营。有迹象显示,随着购车者再次走进经销店,中国的汽车销量正在恢复到疫情爆发前的水平。

总部位于圣迭戈的咨询公司ZoZo Go致力于为汽车制造商、供应商和投资者提供亚洲战略和运营咨询服务。其首席执行官迈克尔·邓恩表示,中国能够迅速复工复产,不仅为全球制造商提供了一个在中国挽救利润的机会,还将助力中国车企加速实现其长期以来的全球扩张野心。此外,中国还将力争在2025年成为全球电动汽车制造中心。

中国现在已经是世界上最大的汽车生产国。根据国际汽车制造商组织的数据,2019年中国制造的汽车占全球总产量的28%。然而,这些产出几乎完全服务于国内市场。中国在2019年出口的汽车仅占其全年总产量的3%左右。在全球汽车销售方面,中国仍然落后于日本、德国和美国。以去年为例,中国出口了约100万辆汽车,而德国车企则在海外销售了大约350万辆。

邓恩在本周接受《财富》杂志亚洲执行主编钱科雷专访时表示,未来几年,随着全球继续笼罩在新冠疫情的阴影之下,中国在全球汽车领域的足迹很可能会扩大。他还讨论了在中美关系持续紧张之际,中国车企在海外扩张时将面临的挑战和机遇,中国本土汽车市场如何在全国复工复产期间实现反弹,以及为什么中国汽车的未来是电动汽车等问题。为篇幅和简明起见,以下访谈经过编辑处理。

《财富》:在刚刚过去的这两个月,中国的乘用车销量一直在增长。中国是否已经摆脱了新冠疫情的冲击?

迈克尔·邓恩:复苏的速度非常快。回想一下2月,整个行业和市场当时都陷入了完全停滞的状态。工厂不再生产汽车,也没有消费者去经销店买车。销量暴跌了80%——没错,在这个全球最大的市场,汽车销量暴跌了80%。但在这段停摆期之后,中国汽车市场迅速走向复苏。5月的销量再次上涨,尽管涨幅不算大。

中国消费者现在是什么心态?

谨慎、小心、慎重。中国经济仍然存在一定的不确定性,不确定因素包括中美贸易的紧张局势、失业问题等等。

中国汽车生产线现状如何?

在中国,生产不是问题。工人早已回到生产线,供应链也恢复得差不多了。中国的供应链基本上都在国内,不会像其他国家的汽车制造商那样,受困于大量零部件来自海外的窘境。

问题主要在需求端:未来几个月的需求在哪里?中国汽车行业的年产能高达4,000万辆,而国内的需求大约能消化2,000万辆。所以,只要简单算一算,你就能感觉到中国车企面临着向海外出口大量汽车的巨大压力。他们必须走出去。

但放眼海外,中国车企的真正着力点是东南亚、非洲和南美市场,因为这些市场的消费者对价格更为敏感。就美国和欧洲而言,我们可能还要再过五年,才能在美国的道路上看到中国汽车。这需要一段时间。

今年2月,中国汽车制造商吉利与沃尔沃合并。未来我们能否看到更多来自中国汽车业的这种跨国投资?

这笔交易代表了中国汽车制造商走向海外的战略方向。中国人很难把自己的制造设施“移植到”其他市场,但吉利对沃尔沃采取的方法取得了惊人的成功。

沃尔沃的销量和利润双双创下新纪录。他们正在开足马力,全力生产。这笔交易的关键点是,吉利并没有尝试打造自己的品牌——事实上,许多消费者对中国汽车品牌的第一印象可能并不好——而是收购另一个品牌。

收购将是中国车企走向海外的一个关键工具。

你认为中国的海外投资会遭到反对和限制吗?

这是毫无疑问的,尤其是在美国。2017年,我们非常震惊地发现,在美国运营的中资车企超过100家。其中大多数是通过收购进入美国市场的零部件制造商。但是,谁会想到有这么多中国公司在美国运营呢?

自2017年以来,这个数字就再也没有增加。这些中国车企正在美国站稳脚跟,但新增投资几乎为零。这主要是因为,在中国人的心目中,美国不再是一个容易入驻、对中资友好的投资目的地。

中国对电动汽车抱有怎样的愿景?

中国正在向全球汽车制造商表明态度:“如果你想在这里运营,你就必须制造电动汽车。”对全球汽车制造商来说,这一次真的没有变通办法,没有任何回旋余地,真的只有乖乖遵守这一条路。

中国还在全国范围内大力投资充电站。所以,到目前为止,中国电动车充电网络的规模比其他任何国家都要大。比如,特斯拉不仅在城市之间,而且在许多城市内部建立了一个庞大的充电网络。

无论发生什么情况,中国都将成为首屈一指的电动汽车大国,而且会长期保持第一,并最终成为全球电动汽车出口中心。(财富中文网)

译者:任文科

The coronavirus pandemic has upended the global car industry—but China remains a bright spot amid the disruption.

After shutting down from late January until early March during the early stages of the country’s battle with COVID-19, Chinese car manufacturing is now fully operational and there are signs that car buyers are returning to pre-pandemic purchasing levels.

China’s ability to reopen its economy quickly doesn't just provide global automakers a chance to salvage profits in China; it may let Chinese automakers accelerate long-held ambitions to expand globally and become an electric vehicle manufacturing hub by 2025, says Michael Dunne, the chief executive officer at ZoZo Go, a San Diego-based consultancy that advises automakers, suppliers, and investors on strategy and operations in Asia.

Currently, China is the largest automobile manufacturer in the world, and in 2019 made 28% of all vehicles produced globally, according to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers. That output, however, serves China's domestic market almost exclusively. China exported roughly 3% of the vehicles it produced in 2019. It lags behind Japan, Germany, and the U.S. in selling its cars globally. Last year, for example, China exported roughly one million cars abroad whereas Germany sold roughly 3.5 million overseas.

This week, Dunne told Fortune’s Clay Chandler why China’s global footprint in the automotive space is likely to expand as the world battles the pandemic in the coming years. He also discussed the challenges and opportunities Chinese manufacturers will face in expanding abroad amid heightened U.S.-China tensions, how China’s own auto market has rebounded during the country’s economic reopening, and why the future of Chinese vehicles is electric. The conversation below has been edited for length and clarity.

Fortune: Passenger car sales in China have increased for the past two months. Has China shaken off the shock of the coronavirus?

Michael Dunne: The comeback has been remarkable. If we go back to February, the entire industry and the market came to an absolute standstill. Factories weren't building cars and no consumer was going to a dealership. Sales tanked 80%—80% in the world's largest market. But you’ve really had a tremendous recovery after that standstill. In May, sales are up again, not by a lot.

What is the mindset of Chinese consumers right now?

Cautious, careful, circumspect. There's a cloud of uncertainty that's hanging over the Chinese economy. U.S.-China trade tensions, job losses in the economy, people are unsure, and they're being quite careful about the way they spend.

How much is the pandemic disrupting auto production lines in China?

Production is not a problem in China. Workers are back, supply chains are more or less in order. China’s supply chains are largely here inside China; it's not an issue of relying on a lot of parts coming from overseas.

The question mark remains where demand is going to be in these coming months. [China has] the capacity to make up to 40 million vehicles a year with demand at home at about 20 million. So, do the math, and there's just enormous pressure for them to push out [to foreign markets]. And they will push out.

But [China] really has its eyes on Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America; those are markets where the consumer is more price sensitive. In terms of the United States and Europe, it'll be another five years before we really see Chinese cars on American roads. It's going to be a while.

The Chinese automaker Geely merged with Volvo in February. Can we expect to see more of that kind of cross-border investment in the auto industry from China?

That deal represents a strategic direction for Chinese automakers as they go overseas. It will be difficult for Chinese to build their own 'transplants' [or foreign-owned manufacturing facilities] in other markets, but the approach that Geely took with Volvo has been phenomenally successful.

Volvo has had record sales, record profits. They're firing on all cylinders and the key there is that rather than [Geely] trying to build [its] own brand, which in many consumers’ minds might be tarnished to begin with, [Geely] instead just acquired another brand.

Acquisition is going to be a key tool for Chinese as they go abroad.

Do you expect political backlash against and restrictions placed on that Chinese investment?

No question about that, and especially here in the United States. In 2017, we [at ZoZo Go] were stunned to discover that over a hundred Chinese owned [auto] firms were operating in the United States. Most of them are parts makers, and came in through acquisition. But, wow, who would have guessed there are so many Chinese companies operating in the U.S.?

Since 2017, that needle has not moved. [Chinese auto companies] are holding their ground here, but fresh investment has gone to almost zero. That's largely due to perceptions that the U.S. is no longer an easy and friendly place to step into.

What is China’s vision for electric vehicles?

China is saying [to global automakers], ‘If you want to play here, you must build electric vehicles.’ For global automakers this time, there's really no workaround, there's nowhere to run, they really have to comply.

China also has invested heavily in charging stations nationwide. So China has by far the largest network of electric car chargers of any country and Tesla, for example, has a huge network not only between cities but inside cities.

Look for China, come hell or high water, to be No. 1 in electric vehicles, remain No. 1 and be the export hub globally for electric vehicles.

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